Question 1

What is Oriclay?

Accepted Answer

Oriclay is a prediction market where users trade on real-world outcomes across Politics and many other topics. Prices from 0 to 100 cents reflect the implied probability of an outcome, creating a real-time consensus backed by traders' positions.

Question 2

What is a Politics prediction market?

Accepted Answer

A Politics prediction market lets users trade shares on questions related to Politics. Each winning share pays $1 when the result is confirmed, while losing shares pay $0. The current price reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome.

Question 3

What topics can I trade in the Politics category?

Accepted Answer

The Politics category currently covers 2 events and 3 active markets. Topics include Trump, Approval, approvals. Use the category navigation to explore live odds, volume, and active markets for each topic.

Question 4

How do Politics odds work on Oriclay?

Accepted Answer

Every Politics outcome is priced between 0 and 100 cents. The price is the market's implied probability: a 65-cent share, for example, represents roughly a 65% chance. Prices update continuously as traders react to new information.

Question 5

Which Politics markets are most active right now?

Accepted Answer

Activity changes constantly, but you can sort this page by 24-hour volume to find where trading is concentrated. Markets currently drawing attention include "Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?", "Trump approval Up or Down this week?".

Question 6

How are Politics prediction markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Each market has specific resolution criteria and sources published in its rules. Once the result is confirmed by the defined source, the market resolves and winning shares pay $1 each. Read the complete rules before trading.

Question 7

Why do Politics odds change so often?

Accepted Answer

Politics markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data, deadlines, and other developments. Each trade can move the price as participants update their views, so the displayed probability can change at any time.

Question 8

How many Politics markets are on Oriclay?

Accepted Answer

Oriclay currently lists 3 active markets across 2 events in the Politics category. Counts update as markets open and resolve, and the category navigation shows the latest coverage by topic.

Question 9

Can I trade future Politics events before they happen?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Most prediction markets open before the underlying event, allowing you to take a position as information emerges. The available time horizon depends on each market's closing date and resolution rules.

Question 10

Are Oriclay's Politics odds more accurate than polls or forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets, polls, models, and analyst forecasts are complementary tools. Because traders risk capital, market prices aggregate their information and incentives into one probability. No market is a guarantee; odds show the consensus at a point in time.

Question 11

How do I start trading Politics markets on Oriclay?

Accepted Answer

Browse the Politics page, open a market to review its prices and full rules, and select the outcome you want to trade. Once your account is funded, enter an amount and place your order. You can sell before resolution or hold winning shares for the $1 payout.

Question 12

What moves Politics prediction market prices?

Accepted Answer

Prices are driven by developments related to the underlying event, including official announcements, scheduled dates, data releases, reporting, and major news. Buying and selling turn those changing views into updated implied probabilities.

Question 13

Where can I see live Politics odds and trading volume?

Accepted Answer

Market cards on this page show current outcome probabilities and trading volume. Open any market for its price history, available outcomes, full resolution rules, and trading controls.

Politics